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| Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets | 
 enlarge | Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher: Penguin
Category: Book
Buy New: £6.38
New (6) from £6.38
Avg. Customer Rating:  25 reviews
Sales Rank: 231758
Media: Paperback
Edition: Open Market Ed
Pages: 368
Shipping Weight (lbs): 0.5
Dimensions (in): 7 x 4.3 x 0.9
ISBN: 014103274X
EAN: 9780141032740
ASIN: 014103274X
Publication Date: March 29, 2007
Availability: Usually dispatched within 1-2 business days
Condition: Ships on next working day. Delivery time for most European countries 2-4 days. Outside Europe usually 7-10 days.
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| Customer Reviews:
 a few hundred pages on...on what actually? March 25, 2008
4 out of 9 found this review helpful
for the general public interested in the weird world of probability or the unknowns of the universe i'd suggest buy a popular book on quantum theory or some post-modern work of fiction instead. sky diving is another option to explore probabilities. for the more mathematically inclined reader or trading professional it's probably better to stick to Taleb's good book: dynamic hedging.
Disappointed February 19, 2008
3 out of 10 found this review helpful
The basic idea of interpreting signal for noise was enticing. Wanted more psychology but just got quirky anecdotes. Interesting area for analysis and explication but this does not achieve either.
A missed opportunity January 18, 2008
16 out of 19 found this review helpful
There are two main issues with this work.
Firstly, the text suffers from Taleb's overarching ego making far too many obnoxious intrusions. After being repeatedly told that the arguments presented before me are axiomatically correct on the basis of Taleb's undoubted (but overrated) intelligence, this book is difficult to take seriously. Much of the text could be written as a playground taunt of "Say I'm right or I'll ignore you and call you thicko to my pals". Charming!
Secondly, after making some admittedly correct observations Taleb just doesn't seem to be able to help himself from spilling over into an unstructured rant, ending with some rather pompous platitudes that ruined the entire book for me. It's not that I entirely disagree with him, just that I believe Taleb should have more respect for his readership and humanity as a whole.
The work of a good editor could have transformed Fooled By Randomness into a genuinely entertaining read on the often misunderstood area of probability. This book could also work as a good introduction to the topic of free will vs. determinism, although suffering from being a little one sided in its outlook.
Also, given the reliance on anecdotal evidence, nobody of any serious intellect can give Fooled By Randomness too much credibility. This book is mostly at journalistic standards.
If you are interested in probability and related topics there are other authors out there who can do it so much better, and without the unnecessary baggage. If you're not, then this book is a pointless ramble that will confuse the uninformed and cause rancour in others.
 Entertaining and fascinating introduction to fractals October 30, 2007
3 out of 3 found this review helpful
This is a really easy-to-read and interesting book about how we do not understand probability laws. It can be an easy introduction to the fascinating world of fractals and non-linear mathematics.
In my humble opinion this book out-rates "The Black Swan" by the same author. While reading "fooled by randomness" I laughed, I was amazed and made me explore with admiration the fascinating world discovered by Benoit Mandelbrot. I'm in debt with Nassim Taleb for this.
 Statistical Karma will get you in the end October 7, 2007
14 out of 14 found this review helpful
Any book that stimulates the mind, leaving you thinking about the content for a long time after reading, is a worthy read even if its tone, message or style is not always appealing and this is such a book.
One trader makes large profits from his trading decisions three years in a row, is considered highly skilled in his profession and is financially rewarded. Another trader makes a loss and loses his job. Nassim Taleb argues that the difference could be more due to luck than talent and that in business and life in general people have a tendency to provide cause and effect explanations to what are in reality random events.
Taleb comes across as the rebellious anti-establishment statistician, showing his disdain and frustration at the abuse of statistics and logic that he sees in the world around him. He describes the many flaws in the mathematical and logical reasoning used by the 'experts'. This book illustrates many ways that misuse of statistical models and logical inference can lead to inaccurate conclusions and promote the unworthy to stardom. The misconceptions are presented in an entertaining, easy to read manner and while many of the underlying statistical concepts are not new and may even appear to be common sense, the point made is that the human brain is not necessarily programmed to apply them naturally in the real world.
There is a frustrating element to the book in that it raises more questions than answers. Assuming the biases and inaccuracies in stock market modeling do exist, then there is a lack of practical suggestions on how to react to this or benefit from this. There is a danger here of promoting academic purity over real world pragmatism, the statistical models and tools used may not be perfect but what is the alternative apart from flipping a coin?
Taleb does hint at a successful options trading method he uses to exploit biases in stock market decision making models yet he never elaborates. Such claims could be treated with skepticism. For example, if rare events are so rare that one cannot quantify their probablity or impact, how can one accurately assess the best method to profit from them?
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