|
| The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable | 
 enlarge | Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher: Allen Lane
Category: Book
This item is no longer available
Avg. Customer Rating:  80 reviews
Sales Rank: 1219590
Media: Paperback
Edition: Australian Ed
Pages: 400
Shipping Weight (lbs): 1.1
ISBN: 1846140455
EAN: 9781846140457
ASIN: 1846140455
Publication Date: June 1, 2007
|
| Customer Reviews:
 Catchy Title, engrossing and cynical June 3, 2008
10 out of 13 found this review helpful
I thought I might learn something from this book so finished it in two days including the afternoon of purchasing it. It had a sharp pleasant start, then in the middle it became depressing and towards the end, there was light at the end of the tunnel - phew.
I did not feel that this book had anything earth shatteringly new, although Taleb emphasises his unique, totally unique grasp of the problem as if no one else had seen it before. Of course he does give a few quotes from the Bible, but then he criticizes so much. I can forgive him all his foibles and criticisms bar one. He shot the messenger at the start by saying that the Black Swan is an ugly bird. Why shoot the bird? The bird is an extraordinary, ornithological enigma and indeed as something of a naturalist, the title persuaded me. Taleb does not seem to have a high regard for the natural world and says we should not be too guilty about species extinctions ... Something else that irritated me was when Taleb describes an issue and then says "more on this is chapter X ahead". I could not always say that I held my breath with this prequel. I prefer to eat my food without having to revisit it again and again too many times.
I learned about mediocristan and extrismistan and how bell curves don't help you make accurate financial forecasts. I learned about the "narrative fallacy" and just how bad our assumptions are about how much we know. I learned about bad Nobel prizes in economics and the importance of Mandelbrot and certain apparently vital French thinkers and philosophers including that science guru Popper and Poincare. Finally, I also learned about Lebanon turning from hell to heaven and the tragedy of this all (really interesting). This is my first book by a recent middle eastern intellectual - I don't normally read books from people in this part of the world if only because they have not written on anything that particularly interests me (leaving aside ancient history). This at least makes the book worth it - I hope there are more like it from similar authors.
Taleb is a sycophant when it comes to the USA. I grant him that the USA is a marvelous country, but how about some objectivity about the debt crises that the USA faces and - if he must give us his opinions free of charge, some frank views about politics and religion rather than various intellectual asides?
It's clear that he presents himself and his credentials as a scientist, scholar, polyglot and humanist rather than a businessman and stock market professional. He likes to describe himself as a limousine driver - just to show that he does not suffer fools and would actually prefer to put his feet up with a good book. Taleb is admirable and has chutzpah.
The failings of this book is that Taleb's major philosophical rant - that things are basically uncertain has been the core of ancient religions and philosophies the world over. Leaving aside a Platonic fixity that Taleb uses as a bulwark to his arguments - a huge amount of ancient philosophical and spiritual rhetoric is about uncertainties ... and deep down we know the imperfections and the stench is unbearable. Thanks for teaching me not to believe in the experts - sincerely, but Taleb's veiled dismissal of others in the pre-modern age who basically knew it the way he says it - suggests a lack of extensive reading. Then again, Taleb is selective on his sources and only quotes from works contra his theses (? - something like that).
Yes we are victims of story telling - but actually it's worse. I don't think Taleb does justice to the apparent Socratic quip that "I know one thing and that is I know nothing".
Well, I'm not going to give up on chasing after the rainbow, but thanks for telling me it's a futile enterprise. This will certainly save me money - but don't let's forget that magic sometimes exists as well and luck could do with a fuller treatment, beyond that of chance.
A stimulating scientific exposition that many would benefit from. I found this book very helpful in plotting a direction in life. P.S., The Black Swan remains a beautiful bird.
 Fat Tony and Dr John May 30, 2008
4 out of 7 found this review helpful
One gets the feeling that a lot of the negative reviews posted here were written by Dr John characters. NNT is clearly a Fat Tony of a sort, and one gifted with a fine turn of phrase. His book is important, witty and does a pretty comprehensive job of undermining much that economists and other predictive "experts" hold dear. Sure, his book is a bit pompous (although he also has a nice line in self-deprecation, usually expressed through the person of his mother), but we live in an age dominated by tedious editors and pre-packaged phrasing. Enjoy the difference, and the author's admirably cultivated range of reference. (Which admittedly isn't very Fat Tony, but consistency is the bugbear of little minds.) As for those who say that he doesn't have his own alternative to current predictive methodologies to offer, you miss the central point: the prediction racket is a nice little earner, but -- judged on results -- has nothing but the illusion of competence/control to recommend it. This is not very comforting to those who need intellectual water-wings to get them through the day, but hey. Deal.
An excellent book somewhat spoiled by the tone of the author May 29, 2008
4 out of 5 found this review helpful
I must admit that I approached reading this book with some trepidation. I had read Taleb's earlier book "Fooled By Randomness" and whilst I found that book very interesting I also found it very exasperating. This book was the same, only more so.
The central theme of the book is that unexpected random events are much more likely to have far greater impact than is presumed by traditional statistics . In contrast he shows that there are domains where extreme events or values are more frequent and dominate overall. Taleb's arguments are convincing and he also shows why prediction in general is very difficult and describes human being's desires to post-rationalise events. Because prediction is thus impossible and because the impact of these extreme random events (the 'Black Swans') is so large his argument is that this makes a mockery of much of history, economics and financial theory.
The main problem with the book is the tone of the author. Taleb clearly does not suffer fools gladly and it seems that he considers most people in economics, finance, statistics and academia as fools. He comes across as believing that he is the only one who really gets these ideas. His constant attacks on the 'dark suits' and academics (not to mention several strange jibes at the French) become very wearing. Also his dismissal of the normal distribution is overdone since there are clearly areas where it works well.
All in all a very good book but I wish he would overcome his arrogance before the next one.
 Nice idea, but its overstated... May 28, 2008
9 out of 12 found this review helpful
I did enjoy this book's first 50 pages but the ideas became repetitive and as other reviewers have rightly pointed out quite easily stated.
Also, what is really the upshot of all thats he's saying: Things you don't know about can hurt you!
I really felt that the book didn't change the way I thought about life or work - I'll still need to go on preparing for the future at the end of the day. If a black swan event occurs I'll deal with it when it comes.
So really its a pretty bleak picture by the end of the book!
(A side point: historians have admitted for sometime that they cannot speak the 'truth' about the past...any history/philosophy/politics graduate could tell you that!)
It's scary finding out the steering wheel is not connected to anything. May 17, 2008
19 out of 23 found this review helpful
Let me start by saying this is a fantastic book, but I did not think that as I was reading it....why? because, the more I read, the more depressed I became, not with the book but with the tearing down of the illusions I have built up over many years about managing businesses and organisations. Realising that all the MBA models for this and that actually feed our futile desire to get control of the future, create certainty and create and illusion that we know what we are doing. These models have created an Illusion of control, far better to deal with reality and be prepared as best we can for big changes which traditional analysis tells us are highly improbable and creates a false sense of security. Taleb has shown that the highly Improbable is anything but.
Taleb deconstructs, (rips apart)very logically, the predictive probabilities associated with the ubiquitous bell curve in a manner a non statistician can understand and provides us with a language to use against the analysts, who are using highly sophisticated bell curve models in an effort to make business decisions. This predictive activity can now be revealed for what it is...nothing more than corporate tarot card reading.
For me, finding out that the steering wheel I have been holding onto to steer my company is not connected to anything is a revelation, and has forced me to see the world as it really is, not as the analysts would have us believe.
Well Done Taleb.
|
|
|
Powered by Associate-O-Matic
| |
